AFC West Division Predictions: Ceiling & Floor Analysis for Each Team
Editor's note: Michael Plundo is an incoming junior at Texas Tech studying Sports Management and spending his second semester as an intern at 600 ESPN El Paso. He is an aspiring sports journalist. Throughout the final few weeks of his internship, Michael will be diving into each NFL division to give his outlook on each team, with the ceiling and floor for each franchise. In his fourth edition of the series, Michael previews the AFC East below.
Get ready for a gridiron showdown in the AFC West! From Mahomes' magic with the Chiefs to the Raider Nation's relentless passion in Vegas; the Chargers with a new head coach and the Broncos with a new man under center, let’s go further in depth with each team.
Kansas City Chiefs
- Record: 11-6 (2023) - Overall finish: Super Bowl Champs
- Division placement: 1st - Head Coach: Andy Reid (12th season)
- Offense rank: 351.3 yds/G (9/32) - Defense rank: 289.8 yds/G allowed (2/32)
Last year’s overview:
The last time an NFL team achieved a three-peat was from 1965 to 1967, accomplished by Vince Lombardi's Packers. Now, the Kansas City Chiefs have a chance to rewrite history by bringing another title home. The Chiefs made significant strides last season, thanks in no small part to defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, who coached the defense to a second-place finish in yards allowed per game. Superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes showcased his brilliance, guiding the Chiefs to a second consecutive Super Bowl appearance and earning the title of 2024 Super Bowl MVP along the way.
New Additions:
Kansas City is buzzing with optimism as the Chiefs aim for a historic three-peat. Here’s a look at the roster improvements that could propel them to another championship. The Chiefs secured their defensive line by re-signing key players: Mike Danna to a three-year deal, Derrick Nnadi and Tershawn Wharton to one-year deals, and star player Chris Jones to a massive five-year, $95 million guaranteed contract. Staying on the defense, the Chiefs brought back linebacker Drue Tranquill on a three-year, $19 million deal. Willie Gay headed to New Orleans, but Tranquill stepped up, leading the Chiefs' linebackers with 4.5 sacks and 70 tackles—a smart move by the team. A significant blow to the defense came with the trade of cornerback L’Jarius Sneed to Tennessee, as he played a pivotal role in making the defense a top-tier unit.
Shifting gears to the offense, the wide receiver position faced challenges last year, prompting General Manager Brett Veach to prioritize improvements in that area. Former Cardinals receiver Marquise Brown has agreed to a one-year, $11 million deal, adding a veteran presence known for his speed and deep-threat capabilities to the team. Despite not playing a full season since 2021 due to injuries, Marquise Brown's career has been marked by inconsistencies. However, with Mahomes throwing him the ball, Brown has a promising opportunity to rejuvenate his performance. Running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire was re-signed to a one-year deal, giving the team depth behind starter Isiah Pacheco.
Veach scored big in the draft by trading up to snag the fastest player in combine history. The Chiefs' pick, receiver Xavier Worthy from Texas, promises to give Mahomes a dynamic deep threat—a duo that's sure to electrify fans and opponents alike. Look out for second-round pick Kinglsey Suamataia out of BYU as he will compete for the starting left tackle position with Wanya Morris.
Burning Questions for KC:
Two consecutive Super Bowl titles clearly demonstrate the Kansas City Chiefs' standing as a top-tier team and underscore the organization's lofty expectations.
Is a three-peat possible?
What does the future hold for wide receiver Rashee Rice?
With Mahomes at the helm, the Kansas City Chiefs embody limitless potential. Since taking over in 2018, he has been the cornerstone of the franchise, delivering Super Bowl titles, making four Super Bowl appearances, earning three-time Super Bowl MVP honors, and being named first-team All-Pro twice. His impressive list of accolades speaks volumes about his impact on the game. As long as he's in the league, Mahomes remains a perennial threat to any opponent
Rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice had a promising first season, tallying seven touchdowns and nearly reaching 1,000 receiving yards. He emerged as one of Mahomes' key targets last season. However, Rice's future with the Chiefs is now uncertain following his involvement in a high-speed hit-and-run crash in Dallas with a leased car on March 30, 2024. The investigation is ongoing, and with the trial scheduled to begin on Dec. 9, Rice's tenure with the team hangs in the balance.
Despite the uncertainty surrounding Rice, the Chiefs still remain at the top. From the talent of Mahomes to superstar tight end Travis Kelce, Pacheco in the backfield, a stout offensive line, Brown and Worthy in the fold, and a solid defense. Not only is a three-peat in the realm of possibility for Kansas City, but the franchise has a chance to capture their ninth straight division title.
Ceiling/Floor:
Ceiling: 13-4
Floor: 10-7
Las Vegas Raiders
- Record: 8-9 (2023) - Overall finish: Did not qualify for playoffs
- Division placement: 2nd - Head Coach: Antonio Pierce (2nd season)
- Offense rank: 289.5 yds/G (27/32) - Defense rank: 330.9 yds/G allowed (15/32)
Last year’s overview:
In their first season without Derek Carr at quarterback, the Las Vegas Raiders opted for the Jimmy Garoppolo experiment. Garoppolo reunited with head coach Josh McDaniels from their New England days, but unfortunately, the experiment turned out to be a complete disaster. Following a 3-5 start to the season, Garoppolo was benched due to poor performance, and star receiver Davante Adams' comments on the Netflix series "Receiver" aptly describe his play with Vegas. On the same day, October 31st, 2023, head coach Josh McDaniels was also fired, ending his tenure with the team before completing even two full seasons. Antonio Pierce took over as interim coach and successfully guided the defense to a top-ten ranking. However, the Raiders struggled with a lackluster offense, imposing significant limitations on their overall performance.
New Additions:
Owner Mark Davis decided to stay with Pierce as he was named the 23rd head coach in franchise history. Pierce grew up a lifelong Raiders fan when they were playing in Los Angeles. He is now leading the charge and hopes to get this team back into the playoffs. In free agency, the Raiders re-signed center Andre James to a three-year, $24 million deal, a player that finished with a 96.5% pass block win rate. The departure of former rushing yards leader Josh Jacobs, who signed with Green Bay, was a significant blow for the Raiders. In his place, the team signed Alexander Mattison, formerly of Minnesota, who will team up with Zamir White, poised to see an increased role in the offense.
The biggest question mark for the Raiders centered around the quarterback position after releasing Garoppolo. In response, they temporarily filled the void by signing journeyman Gardner Minshew to a two-year, $25 million deal from Indianapolis. Minshew enters a quarterback room that includes second-year player Aidan O’Connell. With his experience and skillset, Minshew is poised as the top option and expected to earn the starting role once the season kicks off. On the defensive front, new General Manager Tom Telesco made a major impact by signing star defensive tackle Christian Wilkins to a four-year, $110 million contract. Wilkins, alongside star player Maxx Crosby, is set to create havoc on the defensive line.
Telesco brought back defensive tackle Adam Butler who had a strong finish to the season and could start next to Wilkins. Heading over to the draft, an interesting first-round selection of tight end Brock Bowers caught many by surprise considering positions like tackle and cornerback were bigger needs. However, Bowers will provide as a reliable target for Minshew and has the potential to form a formidable duo with second-year tight end Michael Mayer. Second-round pick offensive lineman Jackson Powers-Johnson was a solid selection. While he played center at Oregon and with James likely to remain there, Powers-Johnson's versatility to play both guard spots provides the Raiders with valuable flexibility and options moving forward. Other picks include Delmar Glaze, a tackle from Maryland, and Decamerion Richardson, a cornerback from Mississippi State, both of whom have the potential to develop into future starters for Vegas.
Burning Questions for LVR:
The Raiders have proven to be one of the most unpredictable teams in the league. Here are the burning questions for the 2024-25 Las Vegas Raiders.
Is Aidan O’Connell the future of this franchise?
What does the cornerback position look like?
O’Connell did not have a great rookie season but far from bad. Finished with a TD/INT ratio of 12:7 and threw for 2,218 passing yards and went 5-5 as a starter. With Minshew now on board, O’Connell is expected to begin the season on the bench, leaving Raiders fans curious about the organization's long-term plans for him. However, O’Connell getting playing time this upcoming season is a possibility, especially if Minshew fails to perform effectively for Vegas.
The cornerback position has been an achilles heel for the Raiders. Jakorian Bennett struggled in his rookie season with Vegas, Pro Football Focus had him ranked 124th out of 127. Rookie cornerbacks Richardson and MJ Devonshire are poised to see playing time this year, potentially starting alongside Jack Jones. The Raiders are hoping to find an answer at the second corner position.
While a Super Bowl may be a longshot for the Raiders, securing a wild card spot is within reach. Players like Crosby, who are willing to give their all for Pierce, are building strong chemistry on the team. However, uncertainty surrounding the quarterback position casts doubt on the Raiders' chances of making the playoffs.
Ceiling/Floor:
Ceiling: 9-8
Floor: 6-11
Denver Broncos
- Record: 8-9 (2023) - Overall finish: Did not qualify for playoffs
- Division placement: 3rd - Head Coach: Sean Payton (2nd season)
- Offense rank: 298.4 yds/G (26/32) - Defense rank: 370.8 yds/G allowed (29/32)
Last year’s overview:
We are two years past the Russell Wilson trade and this has potential to go down as the worst trade in NFL history. This trade has been a disaster for the Broncos, as the team has posted a 13-21 record over the past two seasons, Sean Payton and Russ couldn't see eye to eye, resulting in the team releasing Wilson. The defense has regressed significantly, and the search for a solution at quarterback continues to be elusive. Allowing 70 points in a game underscores just how dismal the Broncos' defense has been. Prior to this, the last time such a score occurred was in 1966, when Washington scored 72 points against the New York Giants. General Manager George Paton and head coach Sean Payton find themselves in an unexpected situation, needing to rebuild on the fly to secure their jobs.
New Additions:
Becoming familiar in Payton’s system the Broncos re-signed receiver Lil’Jordan Humphrey on a one-year deal, could however see his role decrease if Tim Patrick returns healthy. After initally agreeing to a deal with Jacksonville, kicker Will Lutz changed his mind and returned to Denver on a two-year deal. Tight end Adam Trautman also re-signed on a two-year deal, giving Payton the option to run a two-tight end set with Greg Dulcich. With a young offensive line, Denver added some experience by signing former Giants tackle Matt Peart to a one-year deal, a 2020 third-round pick.
Desperately needing a quarterback, Denver traded for former 2021 second overall pick Zach Wilson from the Jets. Wilson's tenure with New York was challenging. With the quarterback position in Denver wide open, he now has another opportunity to showcase his abilities. Former 2020 first-round pick Jerry Jeudy was traded to Cleveland, prompting Denver to add depth at the position by signing ex-Lions receiver Josh Reynolds to a two-year, $14 million deal. Reynolds joins veteran Courtland Sutton and second-year player Marvin Mims in the Broncos' receiving corps. Turning to the defense, longtime Broncos safety Justin Simmons and the organization part ways after his eight-season tenure with the team. From Miami, safety Brandon Jones has agreed to a three-year, $22.5 million deal. While a downgrade from Simmons, Jones is a young player known for his versatility
On the defense, Payton brought a familiar face Malcolm Roach on a two-year deal. The former Saints defensive end provides much-needed depth at a position where the Broncos have been struggling. Cornerback Levi Wallace signed a one-year deal with Denver and is expected to pair up with star player Patrick Surtain II. Wallace, formerly with Pittsburgh, is looking to bounce back after a tough season. In their quest for a long-term answer at quarterback, Denver drafted Oregon's Bo Nix with the twelfth overall pick. Nix's 74.9% completion rate this past season makes him a promising fit in Payton's system. Third-round draft pick Jonah Elliss, a linebacker out of Utah and son of former Denver player Luther Elliss (2004), brings a skillset that defensive coordinator Vance Joseph favors. With Josey Jewell's departure, Jonah has a prime opportunity to earn a starting role. Receiver Troy Franklin from Oregon has the potential to be a steal, while late-round pick Nick Gargiulo has an opportunity to compete for the starting center role. This position is particularly uncertain following Lloyd Cushenberry's departure for Tennessee.
Burning Questions for DEN:
Since capturing a Super Bowl trophy back in 2016 and the retirement of legendary quarterback Peyton Manning, Denver has not only struggled to find a franchise quarterback but has also failed to make the playoffs since. Many questions loom over Mile High as Denver tries to rebound from two disastrous seasons.
Can Bo Nix be the answer at QB?
Will Denver stay patient with Sean Payton?
Nix was the sixth quarterback selected in the draft, and with Payton's reputation for quarterback development, there's optimism that Nix could thrive in his system. Denver boasts a serviceable offensive line anchored by tackle Garrett Bolles and guard Quinn Meinerz, complemented by solid pass catchers including Sutton, rising star Mims, and now Reynolds in the mix. Nix will have decent weaponry at his disposal. However, Nix is on the older side at 24 and Denver may want to see progress sooner rather than later.
Payton has enjoyed good moments in his coaching career, him and future hall of fame quarterback Drew Brees helped bring a championship to New Orleans back in 2010. There have been many stories over the years about how some players have not connected well with him, most recent one being with Russ. A strong relationship between a head coach and quarterback is crucial for on-field success, and Payton and Nix are aiming to cultivate that bond. However, their first season together will be challenging with this rebuilt group. With the team aiming to regain momentum, Payton must give his all or face the possibility of being let go.
The Denver Broncos find themselves in a tough position within the competitive AFC West. They contend with the reigning back-to-back champions Kansas City Chiefs, a formidable Raiders team that has historically troubled Denver, and the rising Chargers led by standout quarterback Justin Herbert. Expectations for winning in Mile High this upcoming season are low, and Broncos fans are simply hopeful for any positive developments from the team.
Ceiling/Floor:
Ceiling: 7-10, Floor: 3-14
Los Angeles Chargers
- Record: 5-12 (2023) - Overall finish: Did not qualify for playoffs
- Division placement: 4th - Head Coach: Jim Harbaugh (1st season)
- Offense rank: 329.4 yds/G (18/32) - Defense rank: 362.9 yds/G allowed (28/32)
Last year’s overview:
Despite starting the season 4-4, the Chargers struggled significantly, ending with a dismal 1-8 record, resulting in a final season tally of 5-12. Star quarterback Justin Herbert suffered a broken index finger on his throwing hand in week 14 and underwent surgery causing him to miss the rest of the season. The Chargers' struggles prompted the team to part ways with head coach Brandon Staley and general manager Tom Telesco, both of whom were seen as necessary changes for the Chargers' future success. The Chargers underwent significant change in their team management, introducing a new general manager and welcoming back a former head coach to the NFL.
New Additions:
After winning a college football Championship with Michigan, Jim Harbaugh is back in the NFL and is the new head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers. At general manager, the Chargers hired Joe Hortiz who was previously the director of player personnel with the Ravens and had been with them since 1998. Hortiz and Harbaugh have taken on the challenge of transforming the Chargers into a winning team. They face substantial tasks ahead, and here's a look at how free agency and the draft unfolded for LA.
The Chargers revamped their offensive skill positions, trading veteran receiver Keenan Allen to Chicago in exchange for a 2024 fourth-round pick. Allen, who had been with the Bolts since 2013, was a significant part of the team’s history. Receiver Mike Williams left to sign a one-year deal with the Jets, tight end Gerald Everett departed for Chicago and running back Austin Ekeler signed with Washington. To replace Everett, the Chargers signed Hayden Hurst, who previously played for Carolina. Hurst reunites with offensive coordinator Greg Roman, with whom he spent two seasons in Baltimore. Former Panthers receiver D.J. Chark Jr. signed a one-year, $5 million deal with the Chargers, bolstering a wide receiver position that is in urgent need of improvement. Another former Ravens player joins the Chargers as running back Gus Edwards signs a two-year deal. Edwards, who scored 13 touchdowns last season, is a strong addition to the team. Additionally, JK Dobbins, another ex-Raven, was brought in on a one-year deal, though he comes with a notable injury history.
With center Corey Linsley retiring, the Chargers signed former Panthers center Bradley Bozeman to a one-year deal. Bozeman brings seven years of experience to the team, providing a reliable option for the position. To enhance their emphasis on the running game, the Chargers signed blocking tight end Will Dissly to a three-year deal. Dissly is expected to make a significant impact in bolstering the run game. On the defensive side, the Chargers signed defensive tackle Poona Ford to a one-year deal, adding valuable experience to their line and Hortiz brought in cornerback Kristian Fulton on a one-year deal, who will likely start alongside Asante Samuel Jr. They also re-signed breakout safety Alohi Gilman to a two-year, $11 million contract. Linebacker Denzel Perryman is returning to the Chargers on a one-year deal. Perryman, who previously spent seven seasons with the team, recorded 250 tackles during his first stint in Los Angeles. Second year player Daiyan Henley has a chance to learn from an established veteran that could help him for the future. In the draft, addressing their need at tackle, Hortiz selected Joe Alt from Notre Dame. Alt is expected to take on the critical role of protecting Herbert and making a significant impact in the run game. Georgia receiver Ladd McConkey, chosen in the second round, addresses another major need for LA and could play a significant role in his rookie season. The Chargers also drafted USC pass-catcher Brenden Rice, son of Hall of Famer Jerry Rice. Additionally, keep an eye on their third-round pick, Junior Colson, a linebacker from Michigan known for being one of the best in the country at coverage.
Burning Questions for LA:
A new era for the Los Angeles Chargers and Bolts fans have good reason to be excited for where this team is headed under Harbaugh.
Can John Harbaugh lead the Chargers to the playoffs?
How will the wide receiver position look?
Harbaugh is what the Chargers needed, his coaching experience goes all the way back to 1994 where he started out as an Offensive consultant for Western Kentucky. He began his head coaching career with San Diego from 2004 to 2006, followed by a stint at Stanford from 2007 to 2010. He then secured his first NFL position as the head coach of the 49ers. He led the team to the NFC Championship game in each of his first three seasons, breaking an eight-year playoff drought. He recently guided the Michigan Wolverines to their 12th national title, and owner Dean Spanos is hopeful that Harbaugh can bring that same success to an organization still seeking its first Super Bowl championship. It will be tough given how highly competitive the AFC is.
Wide receiver is a huge question mark for the Bolts heading into the 2024-25 season given the departures of Allen and Williams. Chark and fourth-year player Joshua Palmer help with experience and Palmer is hoping to bounce back after dealing with a sprained right knee last year. McConkey, entering as a rookie, brings versatility and speed to the team. His quickness could make him a valuable asset, potentially forming an underrated duo with Herbert in the passing game. For Harbaugh and Herbert to achieve offensive success, the receivers will need to step up their game.
The Chargers want to forget about last season, rightfully so. With Herbert returning and a more capable coaching staff in place, the Chargers could not only find the right path but also clinch a playoff berth.
Ceiling/Floor:
Ceiling: 10-7
Floor: 6-11
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